Last updated: December 29, 2022
Welcome to Casino Today’s blackjack guide for card counting, here you will find all the necessary information and strategies that you need to start counting cards in casino games of blackjack, plus we share a wealth of insider tips and tricks that will help you to develop your skills and improve your chances of winning with card counting strategy.
The fact is that there are many beliefs in the world of blackjack about how to count cards in blackjack and whether or not card counting works. Here we cover some of the more popular myths and look to remove some of the doubts that you may have.
The success of Hollywood movies portraying the MIT students and ‘Rain Man’ have led people to believe that card counting will bring players a fortune. However, card counting in blackjack only increases the edge in your favor by about one percent.
In reality, this means that you will probably win certainly, but not every time.
A popularly misbelief is that to be successful at counting cards, and players must be a mathematical genius; however, this is not the case.
Any reasonably educated person can learn and understand the various blackjack counting strategies that we discuss in this guide.
Indeed, the original card counting strategies developed many years ago were complicated, but easier options are available now. Due to their level of sophistication, or lack thereof, most players can pick up these methods in a relatively short time.
With the use of double and multiple decks, opportunities will exist for players as the game develops, and cards are dealt with. As the number of cards being dealt with increases, so does the chance to make the most of your card counting strategy.
This is where penetration levels become an essential factor in your play, and we will cover this topic later in the guide.
This strategy was developed many years ago by the great Stanford Wong. To follow his method, a player becomes a spectator for much of the play. Only when the count reaches a positive, favorable level do you join in and place large bets.
Unfortunately, this method is harder to execute as most casinos now have rules preventing players from joining the game mid-shoe and will limit new players to minimum bets until after the next shuffle.
Bet spreading involves increasing the number of hands you play. This is an ideal option towards the end of the deck(s) and just prior to the next dealer shuffle. Spreading your bets across multiple hands at this time enables you to place large bets when the edge is more favorable to you.
Once that round has played out, it is time to leave that particular table, the casino, or find your next hot spot.
It is important that as a card counter, you prepare for periods of the negative count. These can have a considerable effect on your possible winnings, and care must be taken not to overplay when the deck is in the negative.
Something as simple as needing to go to the restroom will work, take your chips with you and request that the dealer holds your spot. Make sure that you don’t return until after the completion of the next shuffle – of course, the easiest option is just to move to another table.
Having an exit strategy will mean that you minimize the number of bets placed when the count is negative, and increase your large bet options when it goes into the positive.
As we have mentioned before, card counting is not illegal, but it is frowned upon by casinos as the edge leans towards the player. Casinos have spent many years developing methods to limit the opportunities for card counting and any subsequent exposure to large payouts.
The most obvious method used by casinos today is preventing players from joining a game mid-shoe. Casinos have increased the frequency of shuffling and included multiple decks that have reduced the penetration levels preferred by card counters.
Casinos have introduced a range of rule modifications that reduced the options available to the player and their subsequent payout rates.
All players should be aware that casino staff is always watching; they will rarely miss if anything out of the ordinary happens on the casino floor. Dealers and gaming attendants (even security too) will be watching how players are betting.
Including intricate details such as:
The use of surveillance is widespread in modern casinos, with cameras everywhere you look. Instant video is available to pit bosses who have suspicions, and a team of security is on hand to analyze what is happening at any given table.
If the pit boss or supervisor suspects a card counting problem, then they appear suddenly, and things are probably heading downhill fast. They may request an immediate shuffle, move up the cut card, reducing the favorable count for the player, and may even change the betting rules or decks in play.
Now, you do have rights that casinos can’t ignore.
In reality, casino staff can only detain you as a precursor to law enforcement being called to place you under arrest for breaking the law. If you are asked to go with a staff member to the office there are a few things that you should and should not do;
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In this chapter, we look at the methods that are available to beginners and average players, providing them an edge in their blackjack gaming.
The use of one of the many basic strategies that are available can make a big difference in play outcomes over some time. Those who simply play without any thought behind their decisions often lose at a rate of about 2%, whereas following a basic strategy typically results in losses as low as 0.4% over some time.
Using one of the basic entry-level systems, players can improve their edge to 0.3-0.5%, which can make a massive difference in betting returns.
These systems only require the counting of a limited number of cards and making bets based on the results. Bet levels will vary depending on the results of the counts and have been shown to give players an edge of up to 0.3%.
Easy systems such as these mean that there are no reasons why any recreational player can’t master these strategies quickly.
Players began using speed counting in the early 2000s, a technique by Dan Pronovost. Dan’s method involves an alternative count based on low cards – two, three, four, five, and six relating to the standard cards per hand known to be 271.
Begin your count at 30 and understand that there will usually be one low card per hand. Add the number of low cards dealt in one round and subtract the number of hands dealt. Whenever this figure is above 30, your player’s edge improves, then you increase the level of your bet.
The advantages of this method are that the number of cards being tracked is low, the math is simple, and you use just one method throughout the game.
When playing at your local casino, if you are unable to disguise that you are counting the cards, you will never be successful. Casino staff receives plenty of training to spot card counters, so you must develop ways to hide what you are doing.
Camouflage techniques come in two forms – the punitive and non-punitive. Non-punitive methods will give the casino staff a false impression of you. These can be as simple as making minor rule errors to behaving like a random slot player having a go. Make random out of sequence bets to help throw the casino heat off of you.
Punitive camouflage strategies are essentially making bad plays and losing money, which will give the impression that you are unskilled or an amateur.
This strategy could cause you to lose more than your system allows, therefore removing the edge you have.
Successful card counting and beating the casino staff is very much a game in itself. As a player, you do not want to draw attention to your card counting abilities. Therefore, you aim to make them believe that you are nothing more than a casual gambler, hoping to strike it rich.
As a proficient card counter, you must ensure that you leave any high opinions of yourself at the door and allow yourself to be ignored as just an everyday player.
Using camouflage is a strategy which aims at preventing a player from being ousted. There may be times when this will fail, and you will be asked to leave the casino. You mustn’t react in any adverse way; simply collect your chips, be polite, and leave immediately.
When you get back home, take some time to consider what happened, what your actions were, and how you can prevent it from happening again.
To be able to beat the house, a player needs two elements in their favor:
A standard way of calculating the bankroll needed is to multiply your maximum bet by 100. This figure can increase when you are winning but must be reduced through losses, always maintaining the balance of the 100 times bet.
Primarily the size of your bankroll must be at a size that you feel comfortable losing. If you intend to have a long term winning outcome, then the size will depend on your risk of ruin (ROR).
There are two ways to calculate this – short term and lifetime. There are many software programs available to players today that will calculate all these variables for you and guide you to the best probable outcomes. However, in simple terms, understand that the higher your bankroll, the lower ROR that you can aim for, and the likelihood of your profit grows.
A strategy developed in the mid-1950s by JL Kelley, it was based on betting large when the advantage is with the player and reducing bet sizes when that advantage disappears.
This strategy requires an accurate assessment of variance, house edge, and a bankroll for each hand; therefore, it can be challenging to carry out.
The safest way to utilize this system is to play a modified version by just increasing the bet size when the edge is with you and lowering when it is not. What this will do is reduce the chances of being spotted by casino staff – while still enabling you to make winning bets.
As discussed in previous sections, card counting is surrounded by many myths which are commonly known to prevent players from trying card counting themselves. Now, most players do not understand the mechanics involved and the large variation in methods of card counting that can be followed.
There are systems developed around the world from the simplest two-card counts through to the more complicated multi-deck systems.
Players are also able to make use of technology and use a range of software programs to give them an extra boost when learning. From a basic premise, each card in a deck (or decks) is assigned a value usually +1, -1, and 0.
In more advanced systems, these values are increased to +2, +1, 0, -1, and -2 and much harder to grasp.
The root behind all card counting strategies is the makeup of the unplayed cards remaining in the shoe. As each card is dealt, a figurative counter is attached, which provides value to it – when added together, this gives the player an insight into the likely makeup of the remaining cards in the shoe.
When card counting, a player is following the changes in the value of the remaining cards and adjusting their bet amounts accordingly.
A deck with extra ‘high’ cards gives a player an increased edge, and therefore the bet size should be increased. However, if there is a surplus of ‘low’ cards, then the edge reduces, and so should your bet size.
A vital part of any card counting strategy is the ability to concentrate. Any missed step in your count and the edge you had will disappear, and you will have to wait for the next shuffle and start your count again.
When the deck has a surplus of 10s and aces, the edge will favor the player. When your count shows that the deck is rich with tens or aces, then players should consider doubling down, splitting pairs, and placing an insurance bet.
This will put the odds slightly into the players’ favor, and if played correctly, players will have a chance of seeing their winnings grow.
As hands are dealt, there are cards being discarded into the tray. What cards this includes affects how a card counter will play each hand. When large quantities of low cards are played, the edge moves in the players’ favor, but if higher cards are being dealt with, this will have the opposite effect.
It is normal for any mid-range cards dealt, i.e., seven, eight, and nine to be ignored as they do not have much effect on what you are expecting to happen.
Casino dealers will always shuffle well before the deck or decks have been completely used up. The extent to which this occurs is known as penetration and may happen anywhere between 50% and 80% of the total cards in the shoe is dealt with.
Although the effect on basic strategy is insignificant, the way it affects a card counter can be tremendous because card counters need a higher percentage of the right cards still in play to maximize their returns through bets placed.
As the number of cards dealt increases, so do the chances that a card counting strategy will succeed. The greatest chances for a card counter will appear like the end of the shoe approaches, and the data becomes more precise.
This advantage can swing as high as 2-3% in favor of players. Remember that the most successful card counters will always carry out table research before sitting down, to ensure that they are playing the game with the best penetration level.
The player’s edge is the favorable position that a card counter is looking for. It is a time when they can increase their bet size in hopes of growing their winnings with a more favorable chance of winning.
In basic terms, any positive increase in the true count of the cards will increase the edge by a fraction of a percentage. Therefore a high count will offset the house edge and put the advantage in the hands of the player.
The players’ edge will also vary depending on the number of decks in play and the system you are using.
As discussed earlier, to be successful as a card counter, it takes several things. Studying the game, researching the strategies that are available, practice, and most importantly, choose a system that you are comfortable with.
In reality, card counting is a simple method using math to add or subtract one each time a card is dealt with, and there is no need for a photographic memory. Card counters use the information they ascertain during play to determine their bet size and make adjustments on the fly, depending on the positive or negative count.
Placing large bets when the edge is in their favor means that they have an improved chance at winnings and reducing their bets when it does not keep loss levels down. There is no denying that players that count cards will lose more hands than they win, but through adjusting their bet size, they can minimize their risk and come out ahead in the long game.
There are a multitude of different blackjack card counting strategies or systems available today, and the complexity of each system varies. These systems assign a ranking to all cards in the deck(s) being played.
Systems can be split into levels, with level one using +1 and -1, level two uses +2, +1, -1 and -2 and level three systems using +3, +2, +1, -1, -2 and -3. If you are a beginner to counting cards in blackjack, we would suggest that you start by following one of the many level one systems around. As your confidence and abilities grow, then you can move to the more difficult and possibly more accurate systems.
Concentration is vital when counting cards. If you are easily distracted by what is going on around you, you will make costly mistakes that could eat away at your bankroll. Before you head to the casino, play a few hands at home, turn the music up, put the TV on, and open the windows. Practice your counting until you feel comfortable that nothing will disturb you when you are sitting at the blackjack table.
Probably the most popular level one system in operation today is the Hi-Lo system. Devised in the 1960s by Harvey Dubner, it has – and still is – being used by players worldwide. It is fairly easy to understand, assigning +1 tags to cards between two through to six and -1 to the cards ten, jack, queen, king, and an ace.
This makes five in each category, a balanced system which we touch on later. Cards seven, eight, and nine are considered neutral and assigned a value of zero.
Practicing with a deck is a must and will help build speed and accuracy. You aim to count a full deck and reach a final count of 0 as there is an equal number of +1 and -1 cards in each deck.
To practice, start by going through a deck of cards alone and instantly acknowledge each card’s value when drawn. When you are confident that you have mastered that repeat, but this time includes the ongoing total each time you turn a card.
Once you have mastered that, then it is time to improve on your speed. Continue practicing until you can count the whole deck within 30 seconds, as you must be prepared for some fast dealing at the casino. A final strategy to learn is cancellation, which involves making your count two cards at a time.
Remember, when playing at the casino speed is important, so practice your preferred system until you are truly ready.
For many people, they go about their daily lives, never having to make any sort of calculation using negative numbers. Adding numbers together is easy, but throw in a negative, and people start to panic as it is uncommon.
As a future card counter, you mustn’t have these difficulties, and you must be able to quickly add or subtract positive and negative numbers from your count during all stages of play.
If negative numbers are a problem for you, then follow our previous advice – practice!
There are a multitude of software programs available to assist players who want to begin their card counting journey. Many of these programs will take you from a single basic deck, counting all the way through to six or eight multi-deck games.
As you progress, the software can be adjusted to increase the speed of play. Once you have reached your top level of confidence and can keep track of 100% accuracy, you are ready to head to the casino.
As a card counter, you need to keep an accurate count of which cards have and have not been played. The two methods for this are the running count – used for single and double deck play, and the true count – used with multiple deck games.
In this chapter, we will give you some insights into how to decide which count to use. Once you have a broad understanding of the running and true count, you can continue as we go on to explain the use of balance and unbalanced systems.
Using the running count for deciding single deck bet variations is quite simple, but unfortunately does not bring with it the chance of major winnings. Single deck payout odds are low, and invariably the dealer will shuffle the deck every two or three hands.
This occurs because of the rule of five, six, or seven, when the dealer calculates when to shuffle based on the number of players at the table plus the number of rounds dealt, when it reaches the casino’s predetermined figure – it is time to shuffle.
Most casinos now have payout odds for blackjack of 6:5 or 7:6 on a single deck blackjack game. They were increasing the house edge to a position, whereas a card counter is not worth your time or effort. Although it is still possible to find single-deck games paying 3:2, the limitations placed on card counting probably do not outweigh any potential wins you may have, though.
Double deck games will enhance your card counting options as the dealer shuffles will be further apart. Spreading your bets may also help as it should lower the effect of the house edge. Always remember that you are counting and must vary your bet size relative to the running count for each hand, without betting too high and attracting the looks of casino staff.
The use of true count is needed when playing with multiple decks. Identical running counts for both single and multiple decks would appear to be equally advantageous too. However, the opposite is true when considering multiple deck play.
An early high count does not take into account that there may be five or more decks sitting unplayed in the shoe. Because of this, the player needs to convert their running count into a true count. This is done by looking at the number of cards and making an educated estimate of the number of decks that are sitting in the discard tray.
So, if you are playing an eight-deck game and the discard tray has four decks sitting in it you can calculate the true count by taking your running count, let’s say +6 and divide by the difference between total decks and number used, in this case, eight divided by four equals two.
Your running count of +6 divided by two gives you a true count of +3. You must be able to accurately establish the number of decks in the discard tray just by looking, perhaps purchasing several packs of cards and practice at home first.
Using a true count is purely an improved method of setting your bet size; once the bet has been placed, then revert to running count until the next hand.
Using a true count enables a player to maximize their betting strategy. To enhance the outcomes of these simple strategies, a system of indices variations can help. In these systems, a range of optimal hands is set to determine whether to stand when basic strategy says to hit, thereby reducing the chances of the loss at an increased bet level. A simple way to understand and learn these variations is to develop a set of aids – like flashcards with the play on one side and the variation on the other.
There are many strategy cards available online, but one of the best is the cards developed by Ken Smith. His pre-printed set covers the Hi-Lo system with the added benefit of some stealth cards, coded so that you can use them at the table to assist in your decision making when card counting.
In this chapter, we will give you some helpful information on unbalanced card counting systems, the advantage over converting to true counts, and some of the other options available to you.
An unbalanced system is a much easier strategy to follow for most players because players no longer have to continually do what have sometimes complicated calculations in their head to convert each hand from running to a true count.
Back in the late 1960s, a Berkeley mathematics professor created his ten count card counting system – an unbalanced method for all. Over the years, various experts have made modifications to this idea. However, today it is considered one of the most powerful card counting methods – without the need for constant conversion between running and true count figures.
An unbalanced system uses a variety of card tags which, when a deck is added up, does not equal zero, but has a positive count. This unbalance is created by adding extra cards being added to the positive tag list. Although experts long believed that unbalanced systems were not as accurate, computer modeling has shown that they are powerful enough to give the player a definite edge.
It is definitely in your interest to research the many unbalanced systems available and find the one that will work best for you.
When using an unbalanced system to card count, your betting and strategic decision making are based solely on the running count. Unbalanced card-counting systems vary in complexity from level 1 to level 3. Remember that a low count requires a lower bet, and a higher count means it is time to increase your bet size.
When using an unbalanced card counting system, the entirety of your playing processes are based on the running count. Once you have selected which system you prefer, then you must follow the counting process and place your bets in line with the standing of the count. With some unbalanced systems, the insurance option becomes a viable alternative due to the better than average count levels.
The main attraction of unbalanced systems of card counting is that they are easy to learn and implement. There is no requirement to carry out conversions by hand before the next deal. Due to their accuracy, they are a very effective way of providing players with that extra edge they seek over the house.
The pivot point relates to the point where the running and true counts are precisely the same, regardless of the number of hands dealt and cards remaining in play. When the running count moves away from the pivot point, some errors will appear, but as this effect is small, it has little effect on the overall outcome.
A balanced system is one where the value placed on each card (the tag), when added up as a whole deck, will equal zero. The most obvious difference with an unbalanced system and the main reason players are attracted to them as their preferred card counting system is that it follows running counts and is much easier to stick to. They are an effective and accurate way of increasing a player’s edge and therefore maximizing the possibility of winning outcomes.
Jerome oversees our editing and content team and absolutely loves blackjack. So much so that he was a professional player for more than a decade before joining us at Casino Today. He’s written several books, mostly on the subjects of card counting and the different blackjack systems he employed over the years. He also runs a successful YouTube channel where he showcases different blackjack scenarios with beginner tips on how to beat the dealer.
